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Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook


Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 through November 30


RSS Tropical Cyclone Advisories from NHC

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 220531
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Nigel, located over the northeast Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located over the southwestern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in 
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 500 
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this 
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward 
at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are issued 
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are issued 
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162023)

...LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING...
 As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22
 the center of Sixteen was located near 30.5, -75.0
 with movement N at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 220831
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
 
...LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 75.0W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Duck North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear North Carolina to Fenwick Island Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck North Carolina
* Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the low pressure system was centered near 
latitude 30.5 North, longitude 75.0 West. The system is moving 
toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A northwest to north motion 
is expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, 
the center of the low will approach the coast of North Carolina 
through tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, 
southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and 
Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or 
so, and the low is expected to become a tropical storm before it 
reaches the coast of North Carolina.  Regardless of whether it 
becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring 
tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and 
mid-Atlantic coasts.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 
observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in North Carolina later this morning,
and spread northward into Saturday.
 
RAINFALL:  The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of
rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches, across eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia into Saturday.  Across remaining
portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 to 4
inches of rainfall are forecast from late today into Sunday. This
rainfall may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding
impacts.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of
the east coast of the United States through this weekend.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through
Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 220831
TCMAT1
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  75.0W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......210NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  75.0W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N  75.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.6N  75.8W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...250NE  70SE  70SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.4N  76.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...250NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 35.3N  76.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE  90SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 37.0N  76.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.3N  76.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 39.0N  75.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N  75.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023  

769 
WTNT41 KNHC 220252
TCDAT1
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023
 
Nighttime proxy-visible satellite imagery suggests that the center
of the low pressure system off the southeastern U.S. coast has
become better defined this evening.  Nearly all of the associated
deep convection remains oriented in a curved band extending around
the northern and eastern sides of the circulation, although a few
convective elements are beginning to fill in on the back side of
the system as well.  Based on 1-minute wind observations from NOAA
buoy 41002 and ship reports, the initial intensity is raised to 35
kt, with all tropical-storm-force winds currently north of the
center on the north side of an attached warm front.
 
The center does not appear to have moved much since the time it 
became better defined.  Based on previous fixes, the current motion 
is estimated to be north-northeastward (015 degrees) at 3 kt.
The dynamical guidance indicates that the center should begin moving
northward--or re-form to the north--overnight, with a northward or
north-northwestward motion continuing through Sunday morning.  This
forecast track brings the center of the low inland across eastern
North Carolina on Saturday, and then across the southern Chesapeake
Bay and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.  Except
for the errant HWRF (which appears too far west), the rest of the
guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast is near the
middle of the envelope.  This new forecast is a bit east of the
previous prediction, mainly for the portion of the track over land.
 
Baroclinic processes associated with a sharp upper-level trough to
the west of the low are expected induce strengthening, and the NHC
intensity forecast is close to the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA solutions,
bringing the maximum winds to 50 kt in 24-36 hours before the
center reaches the North Carolina coast.  In addition, simulated
satellite imagery suggests there could be an increase of deep
convection near the low's center by Friday evening, and phase-space
diagrams show the system just barely entering the deep warm core
regime.  Therefore, transition to a tropical cyclone is shown by 24
hours, although there still is some uncertainty on that occurrence
due to frontal boundaries still in the area.  Weakening is forecast
after the center moves onshore, and the system is expected to
become extratropical again by 60 hours.  An official forecast is
only provided out through 72 hours since global model fields
show the low becoming absorbed by the associated frontal boundary
off the New Jersey coast by 96 hours.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is producing
tropical-storm-force winds and is forecast to strengthen further
before it reaches the coast of North Carolina on Saturday.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected along portions of the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning area
beginning on Friday and continuing into Saturday night.
 
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower Chesapeake
Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place.  Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.
 
3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban
and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic
states from North Carolina to New Jersey Friday through Sunday.
 
4.  Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 29.5N  75.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  22/1200Z 31.2N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  23/0000Z 32.5N  76.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  23/1200Z 34.4N  76.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 36.4N  76.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 60H  24/1200Z 37.9N  76.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  25/0000Z 39.0N  75.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023                                              

000
FONT11 KNHC 220832
PWSAT1
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN                                  
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162023               
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS       
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  11(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  12(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   6(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)  17(33)   X(33)   X(33)
CAPE HENLOPEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
CAPE HENLOPEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   3( 3)  10(13)  10(23)  13(36)   X(36)   X(36)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   7(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   6( 6)  14(20)  13(33)  10(43)   X(43)   X(43)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
WALLOPS CDA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   1( 1)  12(13)  15(28)   3(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   4( 4)  28(32)  12(44)   2(46)   X(46)   X(46)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   5( 5)  29(34)  11(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  1  17(18)  34(52)   7(59)   2(61)   X(61)   X(61)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X  13(13)  41(54)   5(59)   1(60)   X(60)   X(60)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   5( 5)  11(16)   1(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X  13(13)  32(45)   4(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 22  41(63)  13(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   2( 2)  10(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X  12(12)   8(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  6  59(65)  18(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34 35  47(82)   8(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X  12(12)  16(28)   1(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 32  49(81)   8(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X  11(11)  16(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SURF CITY NC   34 29  48(77)   6(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   9( 9)   8(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
SURF CITY NC   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  7  47(54)   7(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 37  35(72)   2(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 19  27(46)   3(49)   X(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 15  22(37)   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  4   5( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Graphics

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 05:36:23 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 03:29:10 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 03:31:38 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 02:51:10 GMT

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at  1105 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Local Statement for Baltimore/Washington

Issued at  1107 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Local Statement for Wakefield, VA

Issued at  1123 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Local Statement for Wilmington, NC

Issued at  1128 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Summary for Hurricane Nigel (AT5/AL152023)

...NIGEL SOON TO BE EXTRATROPICAL...
 As of 3:00 AM GMT Fri Sep 22
 the center of Nigel was located near 45.1, -36.7
 with movement ENE at 37 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 979 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Nigel Public Advisory Number 27

Issued at 300 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 220240
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Nigel Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152023
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023
 
...NIGEL SOON TO BE EXTRATROPICAL...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.1N 36.7W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM NW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nigel was located
near latitude 45.1 North, longitude 36.7 West. Nigel is moving
toward the east-northeast near 37 mph (59 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so.  A slower
northward or north-northwestward motion is expected this weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Weakening is forecast during the next couple of 
days, and Nigel is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone 
tonight or early Friday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Hurricane Nigel Forecast Advisory Number 27

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 220239
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.1N  36.7W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  65 DEGREES AT  32 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 110SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 200SE 180SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..230NE 360SE 420SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.1N  36.7W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.2N  38.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 47.5N  30.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 110SE  90SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 220SE 200SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 51.3N  25.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE  90SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE 270SE 200SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 55.0N  23.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 200SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 56.9N  25.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 270SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.1N  36.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Hurricane Nigel Forecast Discussion Number 27

Issued at 300 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 220241
TCDAT5
 
Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152023
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023

Nigel has not quite completed its transition to a post-tropical 
cyclone.  A burst of deep convection formed near the center a few 
hours ago, and it is therefore still considered a tropical system.  
Based on a partial ASCAT pass and the latest satellite intensity 
estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt for this 
advisory.

Cold ocean waters and significant vertical wind shear should cause 
Nigel to weaken further.  The hurricane should become a powerful 
extratropical cyclone within about 12 hours.  As noted previously, 
Nigel continues to grow in size and an expansion of the 34-kt wind
field is expected during the next couple of days.
 
The hurricane is moving east-northeastward at 32 kt.  An east- 
northeastward to northeastward motion along the southeastern side of 
a deep-layer mid-latitude trough is expected during the next day or 
so.  Beyond a day, Nigel should rotate around the eastern side of a 
large extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic.  The two 
features should merge in about 60 h and the official forecast now 
shows dissipation at the time.  The model guidance remains tightly 
clustered, and the NHC forecast lies near the center of the 
envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 45.1N  36.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 47.5N  30.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  23/0000Z 51.3N  25.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  23/1200Z 55.0N  23.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  24/0000Z 56.9N  25.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Hurricane Nigel Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023                                              

000
FONT15 KNHC 220240
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE NIGEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NIGEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
45.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI

Hurricane Nigel Graphics

Hurricane Nigel 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 02:44:06 GMT

Hurricane Nigel 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 03:22:57 GMT


Images courtesy of the National Hurricane Center