000
ABNT20 KNHC 030509
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Colin, located near the southeastern
coast of North Carolina.
Central Caribbean Sea:
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a tropical wave
over the central Caribbean Sea is producing winds to near gale
force just south of Hispaniola, and disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity stretches across the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, and the adjacent waters of the Caribbean Sea.
Despite these conditions, development of the wave is not expected
while it moves westward at about 20 mph into an area of stronger
upper-level winds over the western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Colin are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Colin are
issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT3.
$$
Forecaster Berg
...COLIN WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 2
the center of Colin was located near 34.4, -77.8
with movement NE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1014 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
000
WTNT33 KNHC 030234
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Colin Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
...COLIN WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 77.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM N OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warnings for the North Carolina coast and the
Pamlico Sound have been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Colin
was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 77.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
slightly faster northeast to east-northeast motion is expected
during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of
Colin or it remnants is expected to move northeastward along or
just inland of the North Carolina coast through Sunday afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely, and Colin is
expected to degenerate to a remnant area of low pressure later
tonight or on Sunday. The system is expected to dissipate
completely Sunday night or Monday.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible across
portions of coastal North Carolina tonight.
RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall
across coastal portions of North Carolina through Sunday morning,
where an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible. This
rainfall may result in localized areas of flash flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the
North Carolina coast. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022
000
WTNT23 KNHC 030233
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022
0300 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND THE
PAMLICO SOUND HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 77.8W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 77.8W AT 03/0300Z...INLAND
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 78.3W...INLAND
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.2N 73.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 77.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 <pre>
808
WTNT43 KNHC 030234
TCDAT3
Tropical Depression Colin Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
Colin continues to become less organized, with only minimal
convection currently occurring and surface observations showing
that the circulation is losing definition. Offshore buoys have
reported winds of 20-25 kt for the past several hours, suggesting
that there are no tropical-storm-force winds left over water.
Based on this, Colin is downgraded to a tropical depression, and all
of the coastal warnings are discontinued.
The current weakening trend is expected to continue due to
increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear and dry air
entrainment, and Colin is now forecast to degenerate to a remnant
low pressure area within the next 12 h. The remnants are forecast
to dissipate after 24 h as they merge with a frontal system over
the northwestern Atlantic.
The initial motion is an somewhat uncertain 055/6 kt. Colin or its
remnants should continue to move generally northeastward through
eastern North Carolina for the next 12-18 h, and then move out over
the Atlantic before merging with the aforementioned frontal system.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the
North Carolina coast through Sunday.
2. Scattered areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash
flooding across coastal portions of North Carolina through Sunday
morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 34.4N 77.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/0000Z 36.2N 73.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
</pre>
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022
000
FONT13 KNHC 030234
PWSAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022
0300 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE HATTERAS 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CHERRY PT NC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW RIVER NC 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SURF CITY NC 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
